March Madness: Round 2 picks

Day One was mostly upset-free, but Day Two made up for it, with two No. 15 seeds taking down their No. 2 matchups (Norfolk State over Missouri; Lehigh over Duke) and plenty of other lower seeds moving on. Here's what to look for in Round 2.

SOUTH
This region had some of the best upsets of the whole tournament, with No. 15 Lehigh moving on, No. 11 Colorado taking down UNLV, No. 12 Virginia Commonwealth (from last year's Final Four) beating Wichita State, and No. 10 Xavier toppling Notre Dame. Will the adrenaline from so many crazy upsets carry into the next round? VCU should have the mettle to keep its head against Indiana, and Xavier (10) and Lehigh (15) will both be facing another team that just came through similar circumstances, but Colorado (11) may be the most likely of the deep seeds to run into reality when it faces the Baylor Bears (3).

Kentucky (1) vs. Iowa State (8): The Wildcats are in it for the long haul and will hold off Iowa State, which knocked off the defending champs, Connecticut.
Virginia Commonwealth (12) vs. Indiana (4): A tough call, with traditionally weak but recently great VCU taking on recently weak but traditionally great Indiana. I pick the Hoosiers.
Colorado (11) vs. Baylor (3): Baylor will end the excitement for Colorado.
Xavier (10) vs. Lehigh (15): Xavier, a strong team that needed a break, gets one and takes advantage by beating Lehigh.

WEST
Not too many surprises in this bracket, until you get to No. 15 Norfolk State upsetting No. 2 Missouri, a pick to win it all for many. Watch out for upsets among some higher seeds that shook the first-round-loss albatross only to run into a tough opponent in the second round (Louisville, Florida).

(1) Michigan State vs. (9) St. Louis: The Spartans continue to roll.
(5) New Mexico vs. (4) Louisville: Except a tighter game in this go-around, but Rick Pitino's Cardinals should be able to slip into the Sweet 16.
(6) Murray State vs. (3) Marquette: Murray State surprised many by making it to this round unscathed, but Marquette should have the depth to handle the upstarts.
(7) Florida vs. (15) Norfolk State: Why not Norfolk State? They had a load of poise down the stretch, and I still don't buy the Gators.

EAST
All the higher seeds won in this region, but that wasn't the news: Syracuse, short its great defensive center Fab Melo, was almost the first No. 1 seed ever to lose, escaping UNC-Asheville by a smidge. The teetering Orange could be looking at a short stay.

(1) Syracuse vs. (8) Kansas State: Syracuse will toughen up and win this round, but no guarantees once the Orange hit the Sweet 16.
(5) Vanderbilt vs. (4) Wisconsin: The Badgers have a clear path to the Elite Eight at this point and should be able to handle Vanderbilt.
(6) Cincinnati vs. (3) Florida State: Florida State, the pride of the ACC, takes care of a strong Bearcats team.
(7) Gonzaga vs. (2) Ohio State: Both teams won their first-round matchups by double digits, but Ohio State as a Final Four contender should take this game.

MIDWEST
This bracket is Upset Village, with No. 12 South Florida cranking past No. 5 Temple, No. 13 Ohio downing No. 4 Michigan, No. 11 N.C. State knocking off No. 6 San Diego State, and No. 10 Purdue pushing past No. 7 St. Mary's. This region has a very good chance of a double-digit seed going deep, although Kansas (2), Georgetown (3), and North Carolina (1) showed they are reading to contest that with double-digit wins. Their paths may have just become easier.

(1) North Carolina vs. (8) Creighton: A Tar Heels romp or a Creighton squeaker? North Carolina is tasting the Elite Eight already.
(12) South Florida vs. (13) Ohio: South Florida cleaned out Temple, but I'm feeling good about Ohio right now.
(11) N.C. State vs. (3) Georgetown: How about the Wolfpack? I'll take another upset.
(10) Purdue vs. (2) Kansas: The Jayhawks have the tendency to choke on the big ones, and the Boilermakers have had their share of disappointments and partial rosters over the last few years with the Robbie Hummel saga. Let's go with Purdue.

March Madness: Round 1 picks

The first round is technically under way, with Brigham Young and Western Kentucky both staging big comebacks to get into the official Big Dance, but the real buffet starts tomorrow.

One big change that's happened since Selection Sunday is the announcement that Syracuse's powerful big man Fab Melo is out for the rest of the season. The 31-2 Orange are a No. 1 seed and were many's pick to win it all after a stellar season, but this development is sure to upset some apple, er, orange, carts going forward.

SOUTH BRACKET
The South regional offers some of this year's biggest heavyweights. The UConn Huskies look to defend their title while the upstart Virginia Commonwealth Rams come off their own run to the Final Four. The Indiana Hoosiers are looking to not only add glory to their illustrious history but also avenge a few years spent in sanctions purgatory, while the Baylor Bears are looking for redemption of their own as the university tries to turn a corner on some athletic program hardships and win big in football and both men's and women's basketball. The Duke Blue Devils, behind a crop of excellent three-point marksmen and an excellent three Plumlee brothers, plan to make a serious dent with star freshman Austin Rivers leading the way. Finally, the class of the NCAA, the Kentucky Wildcats, are aiming to make John Calipari look better than just a guy that's good at flipping kids from high school stars into NBA linchpins in a year or less. These 'cats have the talent to win oodles of games, but stringing six in a row right now is the only task that matters.

(1) Kentucky vs. (16) Western Kentucky: Kentucky wins walking away.
(8) Iowa State vs. (9) Connecticut: UConn comes out ready to fight, the fatigue and inconsistency that stalled much of the Huskies' season non-existent in the first round.
(5) Wichita State vs. (12) Virginia Commonwealth: Wichita State puts up a mighty battle, but Shaka Smart and Virginia Commonwealth know how to get it done again.
(4) Indiana vs. (13) New Mexico State: The Hoosiers continue the tradition to take their opener.
(6) UNLV vs. (11) Colorado: UNLV enjoys its first trip back to the Big Dance, leaning on an excellent team all-around to move on.
(3) Baylor vs. (14) South Dakota State: The Bears end South Dakota State's honeymoon early.
(7) Notre Dame vs. (10) Xavier: Xavier, still smarting over the attention given to crosstown rivals Cincinnati, rampages early in the tournament.
(2) Duke vs. (15) Lehigh: Duke moves on, leaving its NCAA choking to a later round and a more talented opponent.

WEST BRACKET
Plenty of newcomers or no-names fill out the West bracket, with perennial favorites and high seeds Michigan State, Louisville, Marquette, and Missouri looking to dominate early and save their energy for tough Sweet Sixteen matchups.

(1) Michigan State vs. (16) Long Island: Michigan State could win it all, and the Spartans will start with an easy first-round win.
(8) Memphis vs. (9) St. Louis: Memphis has shown it's more than Calipari, and the Tigers continue a strong season by taking down St. Louis.
(5) New Mexico vs. (12) Long Beach State: Long Beach State has cobbled magic together before and can do it again.
(4) Louisville vs. (13) Davidson: Plucky Davidson won't get a bite out of Rick Pitino's Cardinals.
(6) Murray State vs. (11) Colorado State: Murray State enjoys its high(er) seed and takes care of its Colorado foes.
(3) Marquette vs. (14) Brigham Young: Marquette will devour Brigham Young if spotted a lead like the one the the Cougars gave Iona in their come-from-behind win Tuesday night.
(7) Florida vs. (10) Virginia: Virginia pulls an upset for the ACC, taking down Billy Donovan's Gators.
(2) Missouri vs. (15) Norfolk State: Missouri has high hopes this year, and they do not include losing to Norfolk State.

MIDWEST BRACKET
The North Carolina Tar Heels and Kansas Jayhawks are expected to meet in the end for this group with a chance at the Final Four on the line, and few should be able to challenge those two teams, which are full of length, athleticism, and scoring ability.

(1) North Carolina vs. (Round 1 winner): North Carolina, even if an NBA team were the play-in winner.
(8) Creighton vs. (9) Alabama: Let's go with Creighton, because I just don't think you can ever trust the SEC in NCAA tournament play.
(5) Temple vs. (Round 1 winner): Temple has had a strong season and should be able to win its first-round matchup.
(4) Michigan vs. (13) Ohio: Michigan is pushing its way back to relevancy, and a good season should continue into the second round.
(6) San Diego State vs. (11) N.C. State: Another ACC underdog pick: The Wolfpack will make good on their selection and strong year and take down San Diego State.
(3) Georgetown vs. (14) Belmont: Georgetown brings some Big East power into an easy win.
(7) St. Mary's vs. (10) Purdue: The Boilermakers do the Big Ten proud with an upset over St. Mary's.
(2) Kansas vs. (15) Detroit: Kansas takes this one by the half.

EAST BRACKET
With Syracuse's big man, Fab Melo, out, the favorite in this region may now be Ohio State, which has done well in the Big Ten this season and has a stud of its own in Jared Sullinger (plus a defense that makes some coaches salivate). Fellow conference foe Wisconsin will look to continue the Badgers' strong record in March, and Cincinnati and Florida State need to start off strong to live up to their breakthrough seasons.

(1) Syracuse vs. (16) UNC-Asheville: Syracuse, hands down.
(8) Kansas State vs. (9) Southern Mississippi: Kansas State has been playing well.
(5) Vanderbilt vs. (12) Harvard: The Crimson make good on their first NCAA berth and topple Vandy.
(4) Wisconsin vs. (13) Montana: The Badgers make short work of Montana.
(6) Cincinnati vs. (11) Texas: The Bearcats hold off Texas.
(3) Florida State vs. (14) St. Bonaventure: A tough call, but I'll take the upset of the Bonnies over the ACC winner Seminoles.
(7) Gonzaga vs. (10) West Virginia: Gonzaga continues its strong March performances with a win over the Big East Mountaineers.
(2) Ohio State vs. (15) Loyola (Maryland): Ohio State starts its run here.

Return here later for Round 2 picks.

Madness, I say

It’s the most wonderful time of the year again, with college basketball playoffs (i.e. March Madness) starting this coming weekend. That means the amazingness that is watching 48 games over four days, as well as some predictions, of course.

Best conference in the dance: Big Ten

Michigan State (1) and Ohio State (2) should have very deep runs this year, and almost every other team in the Big 10 could have won a game or two had they made it in. This conference has been feasting on itself all year long, with crazy upsets and tight games even from the bottom-dwellers.

In all, the Big 10 grabbed six spots, with Wisconsin (4), Michigan (4), Indiana (4), and Purdue (10) all getting a bid. All have a good chance at making a little run, and look out especially for the excitement around the Hoosiers, who have thrilled their fans by coming back from the dead several seasons earlier than expected.

Usual heavyweight conference that may have some trouble: ACC

I’m just not as impressed by the ACC this year, and not just because Florida State (3) has emerged to be its champion. North Carolina (1) is an immensely talented team, but that talent has gone to waste in some games the Tar Heels should have won in their conference (a double-digit loss to Florida State earlier this season, and an inexplicable tempo change down the stretch to lose their first matchup against Duke). Duke (2) is Duke as Duke always is, but compared to the other Top 10 teams across college basketball, the Blue Devils are not scary. They are full of great shooters, but their lack of ability to clamp down anywhere in the paint, offensively or defensively, and their having only one truly amazing player (Austin Rivers), leads me to think Duke’s high seed is optimistic, and their victories this season truly fortunate.

When you’re struggling to find a way Duke and UNC can make a deep run, that means the rest of the ACC must be pretty good to give the conference a good representation. While Virginia (10) and North Carolina State (11) have been strong this season, Florida State is the only great hope for this group, with North Carolina needing to fight to keep its mojo to avoid an early upset. And while Florida State is very good, and very deserving of its conference championship, its lack of experience making deep runs in the tournament may be a factor in how far the Seminoles go. Expect one or two teams to emerge, including UNC, but not a conference-wide dominance.

High seeds you should always watch: VCU, UConn, Texas

The names sound familiar, and that’s half the reason I’m picking them. For whatever reason they make it into the tournament, they’ve shown an ability to build teams that contend each year. Don’t let a high seed scare you away; unless they’re matched up against another perennial favorite, plan for an upset. These teams know how to win in the big one.

Connecticut (9) is reasonably seeded, but No. 9 is still low for the defending champs, who have had an uneven season. Virginia Commonwealth (12) returns for another sniff after advancing all the way to the Final Four last year. And Texas (11) has bowed out early enough in recent years to get a string of games going its way.

Come on, Cinderella: Harvard, St. Bonaventure, Vermont

Harvard (12) is in its first NCAA tournament in the modern era, and it's no fluke: After a few years behind the now-everybody-knows-his-name Jeremy Lin and former Duke assistant Tommy Amaker, the Crimson is due to make good on its berth.

St. Bonaventure (14) weathered a tough conference schedule and will need plenty of help in its uphill bracket, and Vermont's bid is a play-in game.

Time to capitalize: Syracuse, Cincinnati, UNLV, Baylor, Louisville, Missouri

Are they highly seeded on strength of name and big-time schedule, or are these teams for real?

UNLV (6) looks to recapture the glory of years gone past with one of its best teams in years, both in talent and cohesion. The Running Rebels are due for a second-round matchup with Baylor (3) if both survive. The Bears are on the fast track from atonement to dominance, and they want to continue to make good on what has been a fantastic sports year all-around for the university.

Cincinnati (6) has been saying it's the toast of the Midwest, but the Bearcats have yet to put together a good tournament run to back that up. Louisville (4), always ranked well and with plenty of pressure thanks to being Rick Pitino's posse, needs to get to at least the Sweet Sixteen this year, considering the Cardinals' matchups. This team has folded early before.

Missouri (2) has put together a fantastic season and has a clear path to the Elite Eight if it doesn't overreach, and Syracuse (1) has played dominant ball all season. The Orange should be winning by dozens all the way to the title game.

Check back later for round-by-round picks.

Baylor bedeviled

It's another Final Four for the Blue Devils after Duke's 78-71 win over Baylor today in the Elite Eight.

After a tight contest throughout, Duke's bigs made the difference late in the second half with some key offensive rebounds, which Nolan Smith and Jon Scheyer capitalized on with some timely 3-pointers to notch Duke the win.

Smith ended the game with 29 points, and Scheyer had 20. The other member of Duke's "big 3" in scoring, Kyle Singler, never found his mark after early foul trouble and finished 0-for-10.

But the Blue Devils survived without him. Thanks to the big-man resurgence that's taken place over the last two weeks, coinciding with the tournament, Duke's glasswork and defense has been enough to take down early-round cupcakes and would-be contenders. Brian Zoubek, who still turned in a great game despite constant foul trouble, continued his strong presence inside, and Duke's greatest X-factor asset, Lance Thomas, was again raking in the rebounds. (Unfortunately, when left open for shots, he was bricking them away or being blocked (2-for-9). This guy is supposed to rebound, not shoot; let's hope he doesn't have another look the rest of the tournament.) Brothers Miles and Mason Plumlee had two of their strongest games all season.

(Duke was helped by a late technical foul against Baylor, too, which gives credence to the cliche that it helps to have tournament experience for the nerves, emotions, etc.)

In this game, Duke fought a tough zone, but when forced to go back to its outside shooting (which it had mostly forsaken in the three games thus far), the Blue Devils turned it on without a hitch. Duke netted 11 of 23 shots beyond the arc, compared to 11 of 38 inside it.

Duke won both the rebounding and offensive rebounding battles by a margin of six (with the second-chance points accrued probably the deciding factor). Duke also went to the line 29 times (10 times more than Baylor), which got its offense going again in the second half. Baylor racked up seven blocks, most of them on inside shots when the Blue Devil big men were trying to create.

Duke now faces West Virginia on Saturday, with Michigan State and Butler in the other semifinal. My picks: Duke and Michigan State in the final. The Spartans ride a little farther that lucky streak that this tournament has been for them, but after getting to the national championship game for the second week in a row, the Blue Devils take the crown no one expected them to contend for...as the sleepers roared in the Final Four.