March Madness: Round 2 picks

Day One was mostly upset-free, but Day Two made up for it, with two No. 15 seeds taking down their No. 2 matchups (Norfolk State over Missouri; Lehigh over Duke) and plenty of other lower seeds moving on. Here's what to look for in Round 2.

SOUTH
This region had some of the best upsets of the whole tournament, with No. 15 Lehigh moving on, No. 11 Colorado taking down UNLV, No. 12 Virginia Commonwealth (from last year's Final Four) beating Wichita State, and No. 10 Xavier toppling Notre Dame. Will the adrenaline from so many crazy upsets carry into the next round? VCU should have the mettle to keep its head against Indiana, and Xavier (10) and Lehigh (15) will both be facing another team that just came through similar circumstances, but Colorado (11) may be the most likely of the deep seeds to run into reality when it faces the Baylor Bears (3).

Kentucky (1) vs. Iowa State (8): The Wildcats are in it for the long haul and will hold off Iowa State, which knocked off the defending champs, Connecticut.
Virginia Commonwealth (12) vs. Indiana (4): A tough call, with traditionally weak but recently great VCU taking on recently weak but traditionally great Indiana. I pick the Hoosiers.
Colorado (11) vs. Baylor (3): Baylor will end the excitement for Colorado.
Xavier (10) vs. Lehigh (15): Xavier, a strong team that needed a break, gets one and takes advantage by beating Lehigh.

WEST
Not too many surprises in this bracket, until you get to No. 15 Norfolk State upsetting No. 2 Missouri, a pick to win it all for many. Watch out for upsets among some higher seeds that shook the first-round-loss albatross only to run into a tough opponent in the second round (Louisville, Florida).

(1) Michigan State vs. (9) St. Louis: The Spartans continue to roll.
(5) New Mexico vs. (4) Louisville: Except a tighter game in this go-around, but Rick Pitino's Cardinals should be able to slip into the Sweet 16.
(6) Murray State vs. (3) Marquette: Murray State surprised many by making it to this round unscathed, but Marquette should have the depth to handle the upstarts.
(7) Florida vs. (15) Norfolk State: Why not Norfolk State? They had a load of poise down the stretch, and I still don't buy the Gators.

EAST
All the higher seeds won in this region, but that wasn't the news: Syracuse, short its great defensive center Fab Melo, was almost the first No. 1 seed ever to lose, escaping UNC-Asheville by a smidge. The teetering Orange could be looking at a short stay.

(1) Syracuse vs. (8) Kansas State: Syracuse will toughen up and win this round, but no guarantees once the Orange hit the Sweet 16.
(5) Vanderbilt vs. (4) Wisconsin: The Badgers have a clear path to the Elite Eight at this point and should be able to handle Vanderbilt.
(6) Cincinnati vs. (3) Florida State: Florida State, the pride of the ACC, takes care of a strong Bearcats team.
(7) Gonzaga vs. (2) Ohio State: Both teams won their first-round matchups by double digits, but Ohio State as a Final Four contender should take this game.

MIDWEST
This bracket is Upset Village, with No. 12 South Florida cranking past No. 5 Temple, No. 13 Ohio downing No. 4 Michigan, No. 11 N.C. State knocking off No. 6 San Diego State, and No. 10 Purdue pushing past No. 7 St. Mary's. This region has a very good chance of a double-digit seed going deep, although Kansas (2), Georgetown (3), and North Carolina (1) showed they are reading to contest that with double-digit wins. Their paths may have just become easier.

(1) North Carolina vs. (8) Creighton: A Tar Heels romp or a Creighton squeaker? North Carolina is tasting the Elite Eight already.
(12) South Florida vs. (13) Ohio: South Florida cleaned out Temple, but I'm feeling good about Ohio right now.
(11) N.C. State vs. (3) Georgetown: How about the Wolfpack? I'll take another upset.
(10) Purdue vs. (2) Kansas: The Jayhawks have the tendency to choke on the big ones, and the Boilermakers have had their share of disappointments and partial rosters over the last few years with the Robbie Hummel saga. Let's go with Purdue.

March Madness: Round 1 picks

The first round is technically under way, with Brigham Young and Western Kentucky both staging big comebacks to get into the official Big Dance, but the real buffet starts tomorrow.

One big change that's happened since Selection Sunday is the announcement that Syracuse's powerful big man Fab Melo is out for the rest of the season. The 31-2 Orange are a No. 1 seed and were many's pick to win it all after a stellar season, but this development is sure to upset some apple, er, orange, carts going forward.

SOUTH BRACKET
The South regional offers some of this year's biggest heavyweights. The UConn Huskies look to defend their title while the upstart Virginia Commonwealth Rams come off their own run to the Final Four. The Indiana Hoosiers are looking to not only add glory to their illustrious history but also avenge a few years spent in sanctions purgatory, while the Baylor Bears are looking for redemption of their own as the university tries to turn a corner on some athletic program hardships and win big in football and both men's and women's basketball. The Duke Blue Devils, behind a crop of excellent three-point marksmen and an excellent three Plumlee brothers, plan to make a serious dent with star freshman Austin Rivers leading the way. Finally, the class of the NCAA, the Kentucky Wildcats, are aiming to make John Calipari look better than just a guy that's good at flipping kids from high school stars into NBA linchpins in a year or less. These 'cats have the talent to win oodles of games, but stringing six in a row right now is the only task that matters.

(1) Kentucky vs. (16) Western Kentucky: Kentucky wins walking away.
(8) Iowa State vs. (9) Connecticut: UConn comes out ready to fight, the fatigue and inconsistency that stalled much of the Huskies' season non-existent in the first round.
(5) Wichita State vs. (12) Virginia Commonwealth: Wichita State puts up a mighty battle, but Shaka Smart and Virginia Commonwealth know how to get it done again.
(4) Indiana vs. (13) New Mexico State: The Hoosiers continue the tradition to take their opener.
(6) UNLV vs. (11) Colorado: UNLV enjoys its first trip back to the Big Dance, leaning on an excellent team all-around to move on.
(3) Baylor vs. (14) South Dakota State: The Bears end South Dakota State's honeymoon early.
(7) Notre Dame vs. (10) Xavier: Xavier, still smarting over the attention given to crosstown rivals Cincinnati, rampages early in the tournament.
(2) Duke vs. (15) Lehigh: Duke moves on, leaving its NCAA choking to a later round and a more talented opponent.

WEST BRACKET
Plenty of newcomers or no-names fill out the West bracket, with perennial favorites and high seeds Michigan State, Louisville, Marquette, and Missouri looking to dominate early and save their energy for tough Sweet Sixteen matchups.

(1) Michigan State vs. (16) Long Island: Michigan State could win it all, and the Spartans will start with an easy first-round win.
(8) Memphis vs. (9) St. Louis: Memphis has shown it's more than Calipari, and the Tigers continue a strong season by taking down St. Louis.
(5) New Mexico vs. (12) Long Beach State: Long Beach State has cobbled magic together before and can do it again.
(4) Louisville vs. (13) Davidson: Plucky Davidson won't get a bite out of Rick Pitino's Cardinals.
(6) Murray State vs. (11) Colorado State: Murray State enjoys its high(er) seed and takes care of its Colorado foes.
(3) Marquette vs. (14) Brigham Young: Marquette will devour Brigham Young if spotted a lead like the one the the Cougars gave Iona in their come-from-behind win Tuesday night.
(7) Florida vs. (10) Virginia: Virginia pulls an upset for the ACC, taking down Billy Donovan's Gators.
(2) Missouri vs. (15) Norfolk State: Missouri has high hopes this year, and they do not include losing to Norfolk State.

MIDWEST BRACKET
The North Carolina Tar Heels and Kansas Jayhawks are expected to meet in the end for this group with a chance at the Final Four on the line, and few should be able to challenge those two teams, which are full of length, athleticism, and scoring ability.

(1) North Carolina vs. (Round 1 winner): North Carolina, even if an NBA team were the play-in winner.
(8) Creighton vs. (9) Alabama: Let's go with Creighton, because I just don't think you can ever trust the SEC in NCAA tournament play.
(5) Temple vs. (Round 1 winner): Temple has had a strong season and should be able to win its first-round matchup.
(4) Michigan vs. (13) Ohio: Michigan is pushing its way back to relevancy, and a good season should continue into the second round.
(6) San Diego State vs. (11) N.C. State: Another ACC underdog pick: The Wolfpack will make good on their selection and strong year and take down San Diego State.
(3) Georgetown vs. (14) Belmont: Georgetown brings some Big East power into an easy win.
(7) St. Mary's vs. (10) Purdue: The Boilermakers do the Big Ten proud with an upset over St. Mary's.
(2) Kansas vs. (15) Detroit: Kansas takes this one by the half.

EAST BRACKET
With Syracuse's big man, Fab Melo, out, the favorite in this region may now be Ohio State, which has done well in the Big Ten this season and has a stud of its own in Jared Sullinger (plus a defense that makes some coaches salivate). Fellow conference foe Wisconsin will look to continue the Badgers' strong record in March, and Cincinnati and Florida State need to start off strong to live up to their breakthrough seasons.

(1) Syracuse vs. (16) UNC-Asheville: Syracuse, hands down.
(8) Kansas State vs. (9) Southern Mississippi: Kansas State has been playing well.
(5) Vanderbilt vs. (12) Harvard: The Crimson make good on their first NCAA berth and topple Vandy.
(4) Wisconsin vs. (13) Montana: The Badgers make short work of Montana.
(6) Cincinnati vs. (11) Texas: The Bearcats hold off Texas.
(3) Florida State vs. (14) St. Bonaventure: A tough call, but I'll take the upset of the Bonnies over the ACC winner Seminoles.
(7) Gonzaga vs. (10) West Virginia: Gonzaga continues its strong March performances with a win over the Big East Mountaineers.
(2) Ohio State vs. (15) Loyola (Maryland): Ohio State starts its run here.

Return here later for Round 2 picks.

Madness, I say

It’s the most wonderful time of the year again, with college basketball playoffs (i.e. March Madness) starting this coming weekend. That means the amazingness that is watching 48 games over four days, as well as some predictions, of course.

Best conference in the dance: Big Ten

Michigan State (1) and Ohio State (2) should have very deep runs this year, and almost every other team in the Big 10 could have won a game or two had they made it in. This conference has been feasting on itself all year long, with crazy upsets and tight games even from the bottom-dwellers.

In all, the Big 10 grabbed six spots, with Wisconsin (4), Michigan (4), Indiana (4), and Purdue (10) all getting a bid. All have a good chance at making a little run, and look out especially for the excitement around the Hoosiers, who have thrilled their fans by coming back from the dead several seasons earlier than expected.

Usual heavyweight conference that may have some trouble: ACC

I’m just not as impressed by the ACC this year, and not just because Florida State (3) has emerged to be its champion. North Carolina (1) is an immensely talented team, but that talent has gone to waste in some games the Tar Heels should have won in their conference (a double-digit loss to Florida State earlier this season, and an inexplicable tempo change down the stretch to lose their first matchup against Duke). Duke (2) is Duke as Duke always is, but compared to the other Top 10 teams across college basketball, the Blue Devils are not scary. They are full of great shooters, but their lack of ability to clamp down anywhere in the paint, offensively or defensively, and their having only one truly amazing player (Austin Rivers), leads me to think Duke’s high seed is optimistic, and their victories this season truly fortunate.

When you’re struggling to find a way Duke and UNC can make a deep run, that means the rest of the ACC must be pretty good to give the conference a good representation. While Virginia (10) and North Carolina State (11) have been strong this season, Florida State is the only great hope for this group, with North Carolina needing to fight to keep its mojo to avoid an early upset. And while Florida State is very good, and very deserving of its conference championship, its lack of experience making deep runs in the tournament may be a factor in how far the Seminoles go. Expect one or two teams to emerge, including UNC, but not a conference-wide dominance.

High seeds you should always watch: VCU, UConn, Texas

The names sound familiar, and that’s half the reason I’m picking them. For whatever reason they make it into the tournament, they’ve shown an ability to build teams that contend each year. Don’t let a high seed scare you away; unless they’re matched up against another perennial favorite, plan for an upset. These teams know how to win in the big one.

Connecticut (9) is reasonably seeded, but No. 9 is still low for the defending champs, who have had an uneven season. Virginia Commonwealth (12) returns for another sniff after advancing all the way to the Final Four last year. And Texas (11) has bowed out early enough in recent years to get a string of games going its way.

Come on, Cinderella: Harvard, St. Bonaventure, Vermont

Harvard (12) is in its first NCAA tournament in the modern era, and it's no fluke: After a few years behind the now-everybody-knows-his-name Jeremy Lin and former Duke assistant Tommy Amaker, the Crimson is due to make good on its berth.

St. Bonaventure (14) weathered a tough conference schedule and will need plenty of help in its uphill bracket, and Vermont's bid is a play-in game.

Time to capitalize: Syracuse, Cincinnati, UNLV, Baylor, Louisville, Missouri

Are they highly seeded on strength of name and big-time schedule, or are these teams for real?

UNLV (6) looks to recapture the glory of years gone past with one of its best teams in years, both in talent and cohesion. The Running Rebels are due for a second-round matchup with Baylor (3) if both survive. The Bears are on the fast track from atonement to dominance, and they want to continue to make good on what has been a fantastic sports year all-around for the university.

Cincinnati (6) has been saying it's the toast of the Midwest, but the Bearcats have yet to put together a good tournament run to back that up. Louisville (4), always ranked well and with plenty of pressure thanks to being Rick Pitino's posse, needs to get to at least the Sweet Sixteen this year, considering the Cardinals' matchups. This team has folded early before.

Missouri (2) has put together a fantastic season and has a clear path to the Elite Eight if it doesn't overreach, and Syracuse (1) has played dominant ball all season. The Orange should be winning by dozens all the way to the title game.

Check back later for round-by-round picks.

Duke!

Some columns on the champion Blue Devils:

• Joe Posnanski on why Duke is a great, not just good, team
• Andy Staples on Kyle's Singler's view of the final shot
• Stewart Mandel on how sweet the win is for Brian Zoubek
• Dennis Dodd on Coach K being the best ever

My favorite quote from the coverage appears in Dodd's story, where forward Lance Thomas says Duke "maxed" their season out. And that's the truth. Of all Duke teams, stuffed to the gills with college superstars and future NBA players, this was not a loaded team. They were just a team, a collection of guys who played to their full potential. Coach Mike Krzyzewski got the most out of each role player, shooter, and sub.

But the greatest thing about this championship game, which most people are now saying actually lived up to its hype, is that both sides were teams. They had their stars, sure, but both sides put complete squads on the floor. The magic of this year's NCAA championship was that the vaunted teams with one-and-done NBA prospects died in the early rounds. Yet the teams with four-year seniors, deep friendships, and a group work ethic ended up the final.

And that's why you watch college basketball.

Duke!

There's been plenty of media coverage of Duke the past few days, but I present this piece by Joe Posnanski as a rebuttal to the question of why anyone would root tonight for Duke, the team everyone loves to hate.

Big Duke

A couple good Sports Illustrated columns on Final Four member Duke: Andy Staples talks about the Duke big men, and Stewart Mandel on not hating the Blue Devils.

Baylor bedeviled

It's another Final Four for the Blue Devils after Duke's 78-71 win over Baylor today in the Elite Eight.

After a tight contest throughout, Duke's bigs made the difference late in the second half with some key offensive rebounds, which Nolan Smith and Jon Scheyer capitalized on with some timely 3-pointers to notch Duke the win.

Smith ended the game with 29 points, and Scheyer had 20. The other member of Duke's "big 3" in scoring, Kyle Singler, never found his mark after early foul trouble and finished 0-for-10.

But the Blue Devils survived without him. Thanks to the big-man resurgence that's taken place over the last two weeks, coinciding with the tournament, Duke's glasswork and defense has been enough to take down early-round cupcakes and would-be contenders. Brian Zoubek, who still turned in a great game despite constant foul trouble, continued his strong presence inside, and Duke's greatest X-factor asset, Lance Thomas, was again raking in the rebounds. (Unfortunately, when left open for shots, he was bricking them away or being blocked (2-for-9). This guy is supposed to rebound, not shoot; let's hope he doesn't have another look the rest of the tournament.) Brothers Miles and Mason Plumlee had two of their strongest games all season.

(Duke was helped by a late technical foul against Baylor, too, which gives credence to the cliche that it helps to have tournament experience for the nerves, emotions, etc.)

In this game, Duke fought a tough zone, but when forced to go back to its outside shooting (which it had mostly forsaken in the three games thus far), the Blue Devils turned it on without a hitch. Duke netted 11 of 23 shots beyond the arc, compared to 11 of 38 inside it.

Duke won both the rebounding and offensive rebounding battles by a margin of six (with the second-chance points accrued probably the deciding factor). Duke also went to the line 29 times (10 times more than Baylor), which got its offense going again in the second half. Baylor racked up seven blocks, most of them on inside shots when the Blue Devil big men were trying to create.

Duke now faces West Virginia on Saturday, with Michigan State and Butler in the other semifinal. My picks: Duke and Michigan State in the final. The Spartans ride a little farther that lucky streak that this tournament has been for them, but after getting to the national championship game for the second week in a row, the Blue Devils take the crown no one expected them to contend for...as the sleepers roared in the Final Four.

A better reason to play

As much as I love the New York Yankees, I hate it when the players say a year was a failure because they didn't win the World Series (unless they are requisitely stacked, well-managed, and blow it...which many years of this past decade was not the case). Yes, they are paid a lot, and yes the goal is excellence, but you can be excellent without always winning it all; it's difficult to put together all the factors that equal a championship, and not winning it doesn't account to complete inferiority. (If Derek Jeter finishes with 10 World Series rings in 15 seasons, is he a 67% failure? Or 33%? No, he would be far beyond the modern standard. Lost seasons are part of the game; the Yankees just need to get all the different factors together to give them the best chance they can to win, and then do it.)

That's why coach Mike Krzyzewski's take on Duke not being to the Final Four since 2001 is so refreshing. He wants to win games, and he wants to be in the Final Four, but he knows it's difficult and not always a given. He considers 30-win seasons a success and measures his players by how much they fulfill their potential.

A national championship would be amazing (especially after North Carolina's dominance this past decade), but Duke has something better. Rather than a coach embroiled in recruiting scandals, academic ineligibility accusations, player violence, or demeaning attitudes, their coach supports playing the game, and seeing where it will take them. That's what will make a championship, or a Final Four, or even an Elite Eight, this year that much more fantastic.

A Zoubek sighting

I didn't have a lot of faith in Brian Zoubek earlier this season, but getting healthy and getting some game-time experience has turned this under-performing behemoth into a big-time player for Duke. Today he got to hone his skills against an eighth-seeded, weak-inside California team that couldn't handle the bigs that the Blue Devils rarely deploy for scoring purposes. (Duke's star trio of Jon Scheyer, Kyle Singler, and Nolan Smith regularly account for most of the Blue Devils' points.) Zoubek led the team to its 15-point victory with 14 points and 13 rebounds.

At the beginning of the season, Coach Mike Krzyzewski and analysts were predicting that Duke's new presence inside would be the difference for the Blue Devils this year, and they weren't kidding. After some terribly premature exits in the tournament over the last half-decade, Duke no longer has to depend on its 3-point shooting, and, as it went tonight, can even coast through games on the back of some strong rebounding guys.

Next up: A weak Purdue team that can be called a Cinderella just for surviving this far in the tournament without Robbie Hummel. Yes, Duke has an easy bracket (especially with Villanova falling), but with these decisive victories so far, you can't say the Blue Devils are taking anything for granted. By getting all their players valuable tournament time, they'll be ready for Friday's Sweet 16 matchup.

My picks for Friday:
(6) Tennessee vs. (2) Ohio State: The Vols have skills, but the Buckeyes have Evan Turner and Jon Diebler. This region is completely Ohio State's now with Kansas gone, and only a major choke will derail their deep crew.
(10) St. Mary's vs. (3) Baylor: The Gaels are obviously good enough after two quality victories to get to the Sweet 16, and classic big man (meaning he takes care of business under the basket with strong fundamentals) Omar Samhan is just ridiculous. His 32 points the other night came on 13-of-16 shooting. 13-of-16. And I've never had confidence in this Baylor team, or their guard named Tweety.
(9) Northern Iowa vs. (5) Michigan State: I think Northern Iowa capitalized on a weak Kansas effort, yet I'm still wary about Michigan State after two hideous, turnover-laden games that managed to come out as wins for Tom Izzo. Still, the Spartans are tourney-tested (and were in the national championship game last year, if anyone remembers). So we'll give them another try, with the winner of this game going to a smooshing at the hands of Ohio State as the Buckeyes race to the Final Four in the next round. Disclaimer: Kalin Lucas suffered an injury in the Spartans' narrow victory over Maryland; without him, Michigan State can still win, but it will be difficult.
(4) Purdue vs. (1) Duke: The Blue Devils are serious this time around, and with a #1 seed, depth inside, and an easy regional, they will end the Boilermakers' improbably run without star Robbie Hummel.

Today's take on March Madness

The big news today, of course, was that No. 9 Northern Iowa upset the No. 1 seed in the tournament, Kansas. Some people are asking if this is biggest upset in tournament history (see the poll at CBSSports.com, and the outrageous amount of people who think it is), but I don't think it's anything other than a classic top-seed-falling-early. (And remember, Bill Self, a perennial early fader, is coaching these Jayhawks.)

This year, college basketball's one major trend was that there was a new No. 1 team every week, and that team, upon reaching the top spot, was quickly deposed with a loss or losses the very same week. Kansas was just the one picked to be top at the end of the season, and, despite the many who thought the Jayhawks were great this year, there are just as many who can show you their weaknesses, poor games, and tendency to fade (Sports Illustrated highlighted this in last week's issue).

It's an upset, yes, but not the biggest one in history. Depending on the next couple weeks (or tomorrow), it may not even be the biggest one of this tournament.

Speaking of upsets, I may have gotten a little too excited about today's possible upset wagon, so for tomorrow's round I'm going to try to calm down my picks a little bit. The Sunday selections:

(8) Gonzaga vs. (1) Syracuse: The Orange have been very strong this season, from being neglected at the start of the season (no Top 25 spot for them) to late dominance. They will hold off a Zags team that has long lost its Cinderella luster.
(10) Georgia Tech vs. (2) Ohio State: With Kansas gone, it's Evan Turner time in the regional. The Buckeyes are too deep for a Yellow Jacket team that is entertaining and enterprising but not exceptional.
(5) Michigan State vs. (4) Maryland: This is the hardest game to pick, with two great coaches (Terps' Gary Williams, Spartans' Tom Izzo) and two perenially great tournament teams. Maryland's strong ACC season will make the difference over the recently shaky Spartans.
(10) Missouri vs. (2) West Virginia: I'd love to take Mizzou in the first upset of the day, but West Virginia, one of the final flickers for the Big East, is too good.
(12) Cornell vs. (4) Wisconsin: I will take at least one upset today. As much as I love Wisconsin and its badger-resembling coach, Bo Ryan, I think the Big Red have a chance in this one. They were hot in the first round and still look good.
(6) Xavier vs. (3) Pittsburgh: Another Big East remnant, Pitt, is too strong for the pesky Musketeers.
(5) Texas A&M vs. (4) Purdue: Not really an upset here: The Boilermakers just aren't that strong without Robbie Hummel, despite their surprising first-round win over Siena, and the Aggies have had a great season.
(8) California vs. (1) Duke: The Blue Devils aren't messing around this year, and the Pac-10 will have to rest its hopes with Washington.

Duck Duck Duke

For all that jabbering that Duke shouldn't have been a #1 seed, the Blue Devils go out and lay the biggest victory of the tournament (and Duke history) with a 73-44 stomping of Arkansas-Pine Bluff, the play-in winner.

Here's my picks for tomorrow (with gambling encouraged since I don't have to float a whole bracket for this one):
(10) St. Mary's vs. (2) Villanova: Big V got a first-round scare, but the Gaels don't have enough to push past a Big East survivor.
(13) Murray State vs. (5) Butler: I'm not an Indiana believer this year, thinking instead that the team that took down Vandy will upset again.
(14) Ohio vs. (6) Tennessee: Bruce Pearl is one of those coaches that doesn't let his team have two lousy performances in a row; Ohio's personnel looked out-of-place in a tourney arena.
(9) Northern Iowa vs. (1) Kansas: The Jayhawks will be rolling for a while.
(11) Old Dominion vs. (3) Baylor: Notre Dame wasn't necessarily a heavyweight, but I also don't think Baylor is that great. Why not another upset?
(11) Washington vs. (3) New Mexico: This 11-over-3 upset is due to the Pac-10 looking mighty fine in this tournament. The Marquette win was quality for the Huskies.
(7) Brigham Young vs. (2) Kansas State: Jimmer Fredette shows up with some more bombs and sneaky one-handed layups.
(9) Wake Forest vs. (2) Kentucky: The Wildcats have a little more breathing room before their first big test, but I don't think it will come from the ACC's up-and-down Demon Deacons.

And in other March Madness news: Doesn't it seem like there's a lot more blocked shots than usual? Everything is getting swatted away.

Excuse me, Mr. Zoubek

Duke's 7-foot-1 senior center, Brian Zoubek, may have heard my comments about Duke's uncomfortable win over North Carolina on Wednesday, because today he came to play.

Behind 16 points and 17 rebounds, Zoubek led a Duke team that slaughtered the second-place team in the ACC, Maryland, 77-56, giving the Blue Devils the top spot in the ACC and making me breathe easier about Duke's woes in the paint.

Yes, Maryland is a guard-dominated team, but Zoubek still did a good job fighting for rebounds, and he showed a certain adeptness for tipping balls in (and making foul shots). All these will be needed for an actual NCAA Tournament run.

The Terps were expected to make a stronger showing after being humiliated by 41 points the last time they matched up with Duke.

In a humorous turn to the afternoon, Coach Mike Krzyzewski (who was appearing in his 1000th game at Duke) refuted rumors he was jumping to the New Jersey Nets by invoking his Polishness.

An uncomfortable win

In this season's first meeting of ACC rivals Duke and North Carolina, the Blue Devils came out on top with a 64-54 victory on North Carolina's turf, but it was an uncomfortable win for Duke fans.

UNC came into the game reeling, with a four-game losing streak, an 13-10 record, and a considerable gap away from preseason expectations. Duke, although statistically much better off, came in hungry, with a couple bad losses on the scorecard to be quickly forgotten if the Blue Devils could give the Tar Heels a knockout punch on their own homecourt.

Despite the 10-point edge that emerged over the last five minutes of play, though, which gave Duke the win, the Blue Devils did not do much to calm the concerns of a fan base that has already seen too often the chinks in the armor for Duke, which has spent the last few years getting bounced prematurely from the NCAA tournament.

The main story tonight was Duke's shooting woes. Despite the preseason hope that a couple new bigs (the Plumlee brothers) would help Duke get away from the concentration on perimeter scoring that has dominated the team for the last half-decade, the Blue Devils have spent much of this season firing from the outside. Senior Jon Scheyer (18.9 ppg), junior Kyle Singler (16.6 ppg), and junior Nolan Smith (18.1 ppg) have contributed the bulk of the scoring, with inside big men Brian Zoubek (7-foot-1, 5.1 ppg), Lance Thomas (6-8, 5.9 ppg) and Mason Plumlee (6-10, 4.6 ppg) merely cleaning up the boards.

Tonight was no exception, but once again, it wasn't as if Duke was trying to live and die by the 3; the Blue Devils took tons of shots inside early.

The stumbling Tar Heels just swatted them away.

Duke went into halftime (leading 28-27) having made only three 2-point field goals, with Singler's 3-for-3 and Scheyer's 3-for-5 marksmanship outside the arc accounting for the bulk of the points. The Tar Heels had to be feeling pretty good about themselves, because no team can sustain that 3-point shooting pace for a whole game. Luckily for Duke, UNC couldn't sustain its defensive pace inside the arc in the second half, either, which is where Duke made 10 shots after intermission and iced the game.

Duke ended the night shooting 13-for-51 on non-3-point field goals (25%) along with a UNC-crippling 9-for-18 on 3-pointers (50%), with six of the deep balls in the first half.

Duke also had the advantage on the boards, 51-42, which is where having those big guys helps, even if they can't score. Despite UNC blocking a terrific 12 shots, Duke gobbled up 23 offensive rebounds and cashed them in for 21 second-chance points. That, right there, is the victory. And a reason to remain hopeful when Duke's offensive inside game gets pummeled by a team of pretenders.

Scheyer ended the night with 24 points on 5-for-9 3-point shooting, and Singler had 19 on 4-for-5 shooting. He also had nine rebounds.

Mason Plumlee collected nine rebounds for Duke (6 offensive) and scored seven points, the biggest being a reverse two-handed jam that broke a late-game tie and put the visitors up for good.

Early on, UNC proved that it could dunk and run, but the only other thing it did with consistency was turn the ball over. The Tar Heels seemed to be moving too fast for themselves, with high-flying blocks certainly intimidating but not stopping the Duke attack. The Blue Devils, although not dominating, had the consistency edge early and had a slight lead until a couple UNC treys worked a tie at 20 with 8:26 left in the half.

Zoubek, Duke's 7-foot letdown, provided an excellent example of what Chris Ballard talks about in his book The Art of a Beautiful Game when he showed how completely inept he is at grabbing rebounds. With a massive wingspan and superior positioning under the basket, Zoubek continued to find ways to not come up with the ball (although, in an early exchange, he did make up for one whiff with coast-to-coast hoofing and a ferocious block at the other end).

UNC's offensive rebounds and put-backs were more than enough for the Tar Heels early, but Duke kept its nose in the game with some great hustle.

After UNC pulled ahead 24-23 with 3:38 left, scoring went back and forth through halftime, when both teams emerged playing the same game.

It was mind-boggling how many Duke shots bounced out of the basket when the Blue Devils were in close, but UNC was still reckless enough to not take control of the game.

Duke players weren't just getting their shots blocked; they were bungling their approaches to the point of defenders swatting the ball out of the air five feet from the source. But the Tar Heels could not pull ahead.

At the 16:02 mark, Duke got a basket inside, and the tide slowly began to turn away from Duke scoring by the deep threat to the balanced game that would win the second half for the Blue Devils. At 10:18, with the game tied at 43, Duke's inside production moved from dastardly to at least normal (which, as aforementioned, is not so much) with another score.

Duke was up 54-48 by the 4:34 mark, and a Scheyer 3 put Duke ahead 59-50 with two-and-a-half minutes to go.

Meanwhile, the Blue Devil defense did the work as UNC was held without a field goal for five minutes.

Duke fans were treated to the sight of former UNC star Tyler Hansbrough's mournful face, a sight Blue Devils supporters had not seen during his reign of Tobacco Road, as the game slipped away from UNC. Duke rose to 20-4 on the season, and 8-2 for first place in the ACC.

UNC, in falling to 13-11, had its first 11-loss season since 2003-2004.

This Saturday, Duke gets an immediate chance to defend its spot atop the ACC with a matchup against the conference's No. 2, Maryland (6-2). Duke won last year's contest by 41 points, but the quick Terp guards will probably be a bit more prepared this time. At least the Blue Devils aren't facing a team that's big inside, because, from the looks of tonight, these Dukies aren't quite ready.